Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas Mayer
Author-Name-First: Thomas
Author-Name-Last: Mayer
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of California Davis
Title: Misinterpreting a Failure to Disconfirm as a Confirmation:  A Recurrent Misreading of Significance Tests
Abstract: When a significance test fails to disconfirm a hypothesis economist often interpret this as evidence that this hypothesis is valid.  Six such examples are cited from recent journals. But this is a misinterpretation of what significance tests show. Presumably this misinterpretation is founded on the valid principle that every failure to disconfirm a hypothesis adds to its credibility. But that principle defines  â??failure to disconfirmâ?? in a way that differs sharply from the way that this phrase is used in the context of significance tests. Some ways of ameliorating this problem exist.
Length: 18
File-URL: https://repec.dss.ucdavis.edu/files/SJP1asFii2RCimGMVtdBWPWR/01-8.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Number: 42
Classification-JEL: C1, B4
KeyWords: significance tests, t values, t coefficients, confirmation
Creation-Date: 20030115
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:42